Rate cut hopes for mortgage holders sink off fresh forecasts and bleak inflation figures
Soon after the ABS revealed an upside surprise to inflation figures, NAB economists have revised their forecast of when the first RBA rate cut will happen.
Deposit holders rejoice, and mortgage holders groan, as Australia's third-largest bank and its team of economists have pushed back the timeline of the first RBA rate cut by six months.
Previously, the eggheads at NAB forecast a November 2024 rate cut; now, they don't expect this to happen until May 2025.
This is a strong indicator from the bank, given CBA and Westpac are still pinning their tail on the November donkey, while ANZ's economists only recently moved their forecast to February 2025.
This change in expectation from the NAB economics team came fresh after monthly CPI data delivered an upside surprise, soaring 4.0% in the 12 months to May, up from the previous month’s 3.6% and well above market expectations of a 3.8% rise.
Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist. Source: NAB
"The mix of slow growth and gradual progress on inflation reflects the RBA’s decision to embrace a 'lower for longer' approach – a lower rate peak compared to other advanced economies, resulting in a longer period at that peak," NAB economists noted.
"It is possible the [RBA] Board will change course and raise rates at its August meeting (especially if the Q2 print exceeds expectations) but with the labour market easing we don’t believe their hand will be forced."
That "Q2 print" means inflation data for the June 2024 quarter, which won't be released until late July.
It is generally a more reliable indicator than the monthly release given it contains a bigger basket of goods measured.
The next RBA monetary policy meeting subsequent to that release will be held over 5 and 6 August.
Advertisement
Need somewhere to store cash and earn interest? The table below features savings accounts with some of the highest interest rates on the market.
New ING personal savings customers receive an introductory bonus 0.50% p.a. variable kick starter rate for the first 4 months on balances up to $500,000.
Reverts to variable ongoing rate. T&Cs apply.
FEATURED
Savings Accelerator (Amounts < $50000)
For deposit amounts $0 - $49,999
New ING personal savings customers receive an introductory bonus 0.50% p.a. variable kick starter rate for the first 4 months on balances up to $500,000.
All products with a link to a product provider’s website have a commercial marketing relationship between us and these providers. These products may appear prominently and first within the search tables regardless of their attributes and may include products marked as promoted, featured or sponsored. The link to a product provider’s website will allow you to get more information or apply for the product.
By de-selecting “Show online partners only” additional non-commercialised products may be displayed and re-sorted at the top of the table. For more information on how we’ve selected these “Sponsored”, “Featured” and “Promoted” products, the products we compare, how we make money, and other important information about our service, please click here. Rates correct as of August 21, 2024. View disclaimer.
Savings.com.au provides general information and comparison services to help you make informed financial decisions. We do not cover every product or provider in the market. Our service is free to you because we receive compensation from product providers for sponsored placements, advertisements, and referrals. Importantly, these commercial relationships do not influence our editorial integrity.
At Savings.com.au, we are passionate about helping Australians make informed financial decisions. Our dedicated editorial team works tirelessly to provide you with accurate, relevant, and unbiased information. We pride ourselves on maintaining a strict separation between our editorial and commercial teams, ensuring that the content you read is based purely on merit and not influenced by commercial interests.
Learn more about our commitment to editorial integrity in our Editorial Guidelines.
Our service is free for you, thanks to support from our partners through sponsored placements, ads, and referrals. We earn compensation by promoting products, referring you, or when you click on a product link. You might also see ads in emails, sponsored content, or directly on our site.
We strive to cover a broad range of products, providers, and services; however, we do not cover the entire market. Products in our comparison tables are sorted based on various factors, including product features, interest rates, fees, popularity, and commercial arrangements.
Some products will be marked as promoted, featured or sponsored and may appear prominently in the tables regardless of their attributes.
Additionally, certain products may present forms designed to refer you to associated companies (e.g. our mortgage broker partner) who may be able to assist you with products from the brand you selected. We may receive a fee for this referral.
You can customise your search using our sorting and filtering tools to prioritise what matters most to you, although we do not compare all features and some results associated with commercial arrangements may still appear.
For home loans, the base criteria include a $400,000 loan amount over 25 years. For car loans and personal loans, the base criteria include a $30,000 loan over 5 years. These rates are only examples and may not include all fees and charges.
*The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate.
Monthly repayment figures are estimates that exclude fees. These estimates are based on the advertised rates for the specified term and loan amount. Actual repayments will depend on your circumstances and interest rate changes.
Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you.
Savings.com.au is proudly part of the InfoChoice Group, which includes InfoChoice.com.au, YourMortgage.com.au, YourInvestmentPropertyMag.com.au, and PerformanceDrive.com.au. The InfoChoice Group is associated with the Firstmac Group.
We may include products and services from loans.com.au, CarLoans.com.au, OnlineAuto.com.au, and YourMortgageBroker Pty Ltd, all associated with the Firstmac Group. Importantly, these brands are treated like any other commercial partner.
The information provided by Savings.com.au is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. We recommend seeking independent financial advice before making any financial decisions. Before acquiring any financial product, obtain and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), Target Market Determination (TMD), and any other offer documents.
Rates and product information should be confirmed with the relevant credit provider. For more information, read Savings.com.au’s Financial Services and Credit Guide (FSCG).
Rachel Horan
William Jolly
